# Energy & Metals — Long-Run Monthly Price Series

Research agent: energy & metals. Compiled 2026-08-09.

## Primary source

All 9 series come from the **World Bank Commodity Price Data ("Pink Sheet")**, Monthly Prices sheet:

- URL: `https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx`
- Retrieved from the live page `https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets` on 2026-08-09; workbook "Updated on August 04, 2026" (data through 2026-07).
- Raw file: `data/commodities/raw/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx` (CC BY 4.0).
- JSON output: `data/commodities/<name>.json`, format `{"series", "unit", "source", "frequency", "data": [["YYYY-MM", value], ...]}`.

## Cross-checks (FRED, raw CSVs kept in `data/commodities/raw/`)

FRED fredgraph.csv downloads were used to verify World Bank values. Agreement within rounding at all sampled dates (2010-06, 2020-06, 2025-06), e.g. Henry Hub 2025-06: WB 3.02 vs FRED MHHNGSP 3.02; WTI 2010-06: WB 75.4 vs FRED MCOILWTICO 75.34; copper 2020-06: WB 5755 vs FRED PCOPPUSDM 5754.6. Note: FRED's IMF `P*` series now only start 1992-01, so they were not used as primary. FRED's LBMA gold/silver fixing IDs (`GOLDAMGBD228NLBM`, `SLVPRUSD`) now return error pages (removed). Stooq is behind a JavaScript proof-of-work wall and is not curl-friendly.

## Series obtained

| Series | File | Unit | Range | Rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US natural gas (Henry Hub; pre-1985 US wellhead) | `natural_gas_henry_hub.json` | USD/mmbtu | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| WTI crude | `wti_crude.json` | USD/bbl | 1982-01 → 2026-07 | 535 |
| Brent crude | `brent_crude.json` | USD/bbl | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Copper (LME Grade A) | `copper.json` | USD/mt | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Gold (London PM fixing) | `gold.json` | USD/troy oz | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Silver (London/Handy & Harman) | `silver.json` | USD/troy oz | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Aluminum (LME) | `aluminum.json` | USD/mt | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Nickel (LME) | `nickel.json` | USD/mt | 1960-01 → 2026-07 | 799 |
| Australian thermal coal (Newcastle) | `coal_australian_thermal.json` | USD/mt | 1970-01 → 2026-07 | 679 |

Plausibility spot checks: gold 2024-01 = 2034, 2024-12 = 2648, 2025-06 = 3353, 2025-12 = 4309, 2026-07 = 4073 (well above $2500 since late 2024 ✓). WTI 1982 open = 35.30, 2020-06 = 38.31 ✓. Natgas 2026-07 = 2.89 matches FRED MHHNGSP exactly ✓.

## Missing

- None. All 9 requested assets sourced. Caveats: pink-sheet WTI starts 1982 (not 1980); Australian coal starts 1970; US "natural gas" before 1985 is the regulated-era wellhead price, not Henry Hub (Henry Hub spot proper begins 1997 in FRED MHHNGSP; the pre-1985 segment is included for length but should be flagged in analysis).

## El Niño relevance (1–2 lines each)

- **US natural gas (Henry Hub):** El Niño winters are typically milder across the northern US, cutting heating-degree-day demand and pressuring gas prices (classic mild-winter demand effect); La Niña does the opposite.
- **WTI / Brent crude:** El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, lowering the Gulf-of-Mexico storm risk premium baked into summer crude and products prices; the demand channel via global growth is weaker and slower.
- **Copper:** Peruvian and Chilean mining (a large share of world supply) faces flood/landslide disruption from El Niño-driven coastal rainfall (e.g. 1998, 2017), a periodic supply-shock risk to prices.
- **Gold:** No direct physical channel; reacts to El Niño only second-order via inflation expectations, real rates, and risk sentiment around climate-driven supply shocks.
- **Silver:** Mostly follows gold's macro channels, with a small direct exposure via Peruvian/Mexican mine-supply disruption during El Niño flooding.
- **Aluminum:** Energy-intensive smelting links prices to El Niño via power costs — e.g. drought hitting hydro output in China/Brazil/Mozambique can force smelter curtailments.
- **Nickel:** Indonesian/Philippine laterite mining is sensitive to rainfall patterns; El Niño droughts can ease shipping and raise ore output, while La Niña rains disrupt it — the supply channel can invert sign vs. other metals.
- **Australian thermal coal:** El Niño brings drought to eastern Australia (raising thermal power demand regionally) while La Niña flooding hits Queensland/Newcastle mine and port logistics; demand-side effects also flow through Asian LNG/coal switching.