# The 2026–27 El Niño: Current State and Forecast

**As of:** 2026-08-09 (all sources accessed 2026-08-09)
**Status:** El Niño Advisory in effect (NOAA CPC). Event is intensifying rapidly and is now tracking toward a very strong ("super") El Niño, with peak expected in Oct–Dec 2026.

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## 1. Declaration timeline

- **Early 2026:** La Niña conditions were still present in early 2026 (CPC RONI: DJF 2026 −0.9°C, JFM −0.7°C, FMA −0.4°C, MAM 0.0°C). CSU's April hurricane outlook noted ENSO was still in La Niña phase in April, with a rapid transition expected.
- **AMJ 2026:** RONI reached **+0.5°C** — the first season at the El Niño threshold under CPC's official index (CPC switched to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, RONI, for official monitoring in 2026 per NWS PNS 26-05).
- **11 June 2026:** NOAA CPC declared **El Niño** and issued an El Niño Advisory. At declaration, the weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.7°C (Niño-1+2 already +2.1°C). CPC assessed a **63% chance of a very strong El Niño during Nov–Jan**, ranking among the largest events since 1950.
- **9 July 2026:** CPC discussion: "El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a **97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027**," and an **81% chance of a very strong El Niño during Oct–Dec 2026**.
- **Next scheduled discussion:** 13 August 2026.

Sources: [CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 9 Jul 2026](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml); [CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 11 Jun 2026](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2026/ensodisc.shtml); [NOAA news release, 11 Jun 2026](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters); [CPC RONI v5 table](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/v5/).

## 2. Current observations (latest weekly data)

Weekly OISSTv2 SST anomalies, **week centered 29 July 2026** (CPC wksst9120, 1991–2020 climatology):

| Region | Anomaly |
|---|---|
| Niño 1+2 | **+4.1°C** |
| Niño 3 | **+2.8°C** |
| Niño 3.4 | **+2.3°C** |
| Niño 4 | **+1.0°C** |

The weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly has risen roughly +0.1–0.2°C per week since late April (+0.8°C week of 22 Apr → +2.3°C week of 29 Jul). IRI reports the Niño 3.4 anomaly averaged +0.98°C over AMJ 2026 and +1.55°C in June 2026, with the weekly value at +2.1°C centered on 15 July.

**Atmosphere:** SOI fell to −24.9 in June 2026; the 30-day SOI through 18 July was −30.0. Equatorial SOI −1.4 in June. Low-level westerly anomalies over the western/east-central Pacific, enhanced convection near the Date Line and east-central Pacific, suppressed convection over Indonesia, the Philippines and PNG. Coupled ocean–atmosphere El Niño is well established.

**Data caveat:** CPC's 9 July discussion cited a weekly Niño-3.4 of +1.2°C, which is inconsistent with the weekly OISSTv2 table (+2.0°C for the week centered 8 Jul). IRI's +2.1°C for 15 Jul confirms the table. The discussion figure appears to lag or derive from a different dataset; the weekly table is the more current observation.

Sources: [CPC weekly SST indices (wksst9120)](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for); [IRI/CCSR ENSO Forecast, 20 Jul 2026](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/).

## 3. Subsurface ocean heat content (equatorial Pacific, upper ~300 m)

- **CPC (9 Jul):** The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average 180°–100°W) **increased** over the past month as a **downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific**.
- **IRI (mid-Jul):** Pronounced subsurface warming between ~150°W and 80°W at **50–150 m depth, with anomalies locally up to +6°C** — a substantial heat reservoir that can fuel continued intensification if atmospheric coupling holds.
- **Pre-event analyses (May–Jun 2026):** equatorial Pacific ocean heat content was described as the **highest since the 1997–98 super El Niño**, with central-Pacific subsurface anomalies already ~+3°C in late spring.

Sources: [CPC discussion 9 Jul 2026](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml); [IRI 20 Jul 2026](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/); [El Niño Guide, 1 Jun 2026](https://elninoguide.com/articles/el-nino-2026-forecast).

## 4. Model plume summary

The mid-July CCSR/IRI plume (26 models: 15 dynamical, 11 statistical) shows **unanimous agreement** that El Niño strengthens through 2026 and persists into early 2027:

- All 26 models keep positive Niño 3.4 anomalies through the whole forecast period.
- **Most dynamical models forecast Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C by Jul–Sep 2026**; statistical models are weaker but still substantially warm.
- **Peak: OND 2026**, when **23 of 26 models forecast a very strong event (Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C)**.
- NMME (incl. NCEP CFSv2) likewise forecasts intensification through 2026 (CPC).

**CCSR/IRI objective probabilities (issued 20 Jul 2026):**

| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAS 2026 → JFM 2027 | **100%** | 0% | 0% |
| FMA 2027 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| MAM 2027 | 94% | 6% | 0% |

CPC's official (human) forecast is typically very similar; its headline: 97% chance of persistence through early spring 2027. The spring predictability barrier has passed for this issuance, which underpins the unusually high confidence.

## 5. Probability of a very strong ("super") event

- **CPC probabilistic strength forecast (9 Jul): 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during Oct–Dec 2026** — up from 63% (for Nov–Jan) in the 11 June discussion. Such an event "would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950."
- **IRI ensemble:** 23/26 models (~88%) forecast very strong at the OND 2026 peak; strong-or-stronger is effectively certain.
- **CSU (August update):** ~60% of ensemble members call for a strong El Niño by Aug–Oct (consistent with the earlier assessment; the event has since verified on the strong side).

## 6. Comparison to 1997 and 2015 precursors

- **Subsurface heat:** equatorial Pacific upper-ocean heat content entering 2026 was the highest since 1997–98, the benchmark super event. Current subsurface anomalies (locally +6°C at 50–150 m in the central-eastern Pacific) are in the same class as the 1997 and 2015 build-ups.
- **Westerly wind bursts:** in **April 2026, a rare triple-cyclone setup straddling the equator drove what one scientist called the strongest westerly wind burst in over 50 years**, discharging the western-Pacific warm pool eastward — the same trigger mechanism that preceded the 1997 and 2015 peaks. Analysts credit it with roughly doubling the "very strong" odds between May and June.
- **Eastern Pacific signature:** Niño 1+2 anomalies (+4.1°C in late July) are extreme — a hallmark of the 1997-style "eastern Pacific" events rather than the weaker "Modoki" flavour.
- **Background state:** like 2015–16 and 2023–24, this event develops on a warmer climate baseline; the 2023–24 event (peak ~+2.0°C) caused ~$75B in damage, so a 1997-magnitude 2026 event would be uncharted territory economically.
- **Post-event risk:** ~60% of strong El Niños are followed by La Niña within ~12 months (as after 1997–98); late-2027 La Niña transition is a scenario to watch, with opposite (hurricane-active, drought-flipped) impacts.

Sources: [IAMElNino.com, 5 Jul 2026](https://iamelnino.com/el-nino-westerly-wind-burst-triple-cyclone-2026); [El Niño Guide, 7 Jul 2026](https://elninoguide.com/articles/el-nino-2026-vs-1997); [El Niño Guide, 22 May 2026](https://elninoguide.com/articles/2026-el-nino-watch); [Severe Weather Europe, 5 Jul 2026](https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-record-breaking-intensity-forecast-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-fa/).

## 7. Expected impacts timeline

Canonical El Niño teleconnections, mapped to this event's evolution:

- **Aug–Oct 2026 (now):** suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity (see §8); enhanced eastern/central Pacific tropical activity; weakening South Asian monsoon rainfall; drying tendency building over Indonesia/Australia; drought stress emerging in SE Asia palm oil/rice regions; East Africa short rains (OND) turn wetter.
- **Oct 2026–Jan 2027 (peak, OND–NDJ):** maximum teleconnection strength — heavy rain/flooding risk for coastal Peru–Ecuador (already primed by Niño 1+2 +4°C); drought/heat for Indonesia, Malaysia, northern Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil; Panama Canal draft restrictions possible if drought persists into early 2027.
- **Dec 2026–Mar 2027 (NH winter):** wetter/stormier southern US and California; milder northern US/Canada winter (typical natgas-demand bearish signal); drought peak for SE Asia and Australia wheat; dry-season stress for Brazilian Cerrado/coffee.
- **Spring 2027:** event decays (El Niño probability still 94% for MAM 2027); lagged agricultural impacts (palm oil yields respond 6–12 months after drought) extend into 2027–28.
- **Late 2027:** possible La Niña transition (~60% historical base rate after strong events) — flips hurricane and drought signals.

## 8. Atlantic hurricane season implications

- **CSU final update (5 Aug 2026): 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane** — well below the 14/7/3 average — explicitly citing El Niño dominating the tropical circulation during the seasonal peak. Down from 13/6/2 in April; season so far has produced only TS Arthur (Texas landfall, June) and TS Bertha (Gulf, July).
- **Mechanism:** El Niño increases vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation during the Aug–Oct peak — reducing storm risk to US Gulf/East Coast energy infrastructure and citrus/sugar/cotton belts.
- NOAA's updated seasonal outlook was due the week of 4–8 Aug 2026.

Sources: [CSU forecast PDF, Aug 2026](https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-08.pdf); [WeatherNation, 6 Aug 2026](https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-releases-first-hurricane-forecast-for-2026); [CSU source page, 15 Jul 2026](https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-predicting-somewhat-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-for-2026/).

## 9. Commodity markets already moving on El Niño expectations

- **Agriculture:** WisdomTree (13 Jul) flags **cocoa, sugar and coffee as carrying the sharpest near-term risk, with sugar at its highest price in over a decade**; the event arrives against a fertiliser market already disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz situation.
- **Institutional positioning:** Neuberger Berman (18 Jun) argues **markets are underpricing El Niño risk** and sees a strong El Niño cycle in H2 2026 as the next leg higher for commodity prices; strategists characterise the cycle as a tailwind for ags and recommend commodity allocations as an inflation hedge (Discovery Alert, 20 Jul).
- **Palm oil / rice:** Expana (May) highlights SE Asia drought risk threatening **rice and palm oil** production in 2026–27, plus Panama Canal transit risk repeating the 1997/2015/2023 drought disruptions; palm oil and coffee ENSO signals are expected in physical deliveries with a 2027–28 lag.
- **Natural gas:** a strong El Niño typically means a mild northern US winter (bearish heating demand) but reduced Atlantic hurricane disruption risk to Gulf production; sector-level (not broad-market) signals are reported in shipping, fertiliser, LNG and irrigation equities (Marketwise, 4 Aug).

Sources: [WisdomTree, 13 Jul 2026](https://www.wisdomtree.com/no/insights/blog/what-el-nino-means-for-agricultural-commodities-in-2026); [Neuberger Berman, 18 Jun 2026](https://www.nb.com/insights/a-sea-change-for-commodity-prices-why-markets-appear-to-be-underpricing-el-ni-o-risks); [Expana, May 2026](https://www.expanamarkets.com/insights/article/what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets/); [Discovery Alert, 20 Jul 2026](https://discoveryalert.com.au/super-el-nino-commodity-markets-climate-volatility-2026/); [IAMElNino.com, 28 Jun 2026](https://iamelnino.com/el-nino-grocery-bill-commodities-2026); [Marketwise, 4 Aug 2026](https://marketwise.com/investing/super-el-nino-stocks-2026/).

## 10. What forecasters say about uncertainty

- **Peak intensity is the main open question.** Dynamical models overwhelmingly project Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C by JAS; statistical models are weaker. CPC/IRI stress the consensus on a strong event but a real spread in peak amplitude.
- **Strength ≠ uniform impacts.** CPC explicitly cautions that even very strong events "do not lead to the expected impact everywhere" — they tilt odds, they don't guarantee outcomes.
- **Dataset/index divergence:** CPC now monitors with RONI (which ran ~0.5°C cooler than raw Niño 3.4 anomalies this spring — AMJ RONI +0.5°C vs OISSTv2 anomaly +0.98°C), and the July CPC discussion's weekly figure (+1.2°C) lagged the operational weekly table (+2.0°C). Quoted strengths depend on which index is used.
- **Decay timing beyond spring 2027** is low-confidence; the boreal spring predictability barrier limits skill beyond MAM 2027, and the post-event La Niña question (~60% base rate) is open.
- The next CPC discussion (13 Aug 2026) and NOAA's Atlantic outlook update (due ~this week) are the immediate catalysts.

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*All URLs accessed 2026-08-09. Numbers are taken verbatim from the cited sources; where sources conflict, the conflict is noted rather than averaged.*