EL NIÑO MARKET WATCH

2026 Super-Event Dashboard
loading status…

ENSO Monitor

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), 1950–present

3-month running mean Niño 3.4 SST anomaly. Red bands = El Niño events, blue bands = La Niña events. Dashed thresholds at ±0.5°C (event definition) and +2.0°C (very strong).

ENSO events since 1950 (click headers to sort)

2026–27 forecast — projected ONI paths vs analog rises

Commodities

Price history

El Niño composite response (indexed to 100 at event start; window −12 to +32 months)

Event Studies

Indexed price paths around event start (= 100 at offset 0)

Documented impacts (sourced event studies)

Macro & FX

FAO Food Price Index

US CPI — food vs headline

Quote conventions: AUD/USD is quoted USD per AUD; BRL, INR, IDR and JPY are quoted local currency per USD (a rising line = weaker local currency).

2026 Simulator

Not a forecast. Projections below are historical El Niño composite responses rescaled by a chosen peak ONI. They are confounded by inventories, policy and macro conditions and must not be used as the basis for trading decisions.
Inventory regime
Methodology (how the projections are built)

Projection summary

Trading

Not investment advice. Every number on this tab is either a real fetched quote with an inspectable source link, or a historical composite rescaled to a scenario — never a forecast. Futures prices below are in contract units (e.g. sugar in US cents/lb), which differ from the World Bank monthly units used on the other tabs.

Current prices (static snapshot — every source URL is the exact API call used)

El Niño playbook — trading strategies

Trading simulator — from the current price

Scenario rescaling, not a forecast. The path below is the historical El Niño composite response (median with p25/p75 band) rescaled by your chosen peak ONI and applied to the current fetched price. Composites are confounded by inventories, policy and macro conditions. This is not investment advice.

Projected price path

Projection summary

NoFA — rules-based paper-trading agent

Simulated paper trading — not investment advice. "NoFA" = "Not Financial Advice". This tab shows a transparent, deterministic, rules-based simulation: which ENSO-relevant asset the agent would LONG and which it would SHORT, plus a paper portfolio starting at $50,000 on 2026-08-13, rebalanced at most once per day, running until 2027-03-01. No real money, no real trades. Every number derives from the site's data snapshots (sources below); nothing is a forecast or a recommendation.

Portfolio status

Daily report

Equity curve

Open positions

Trade log

Methodology & sources

Onchain execution — Ostium (Arbitrum)

Platform

ENSO coverage matrix

Not listed on Ostium

Execution agent status

Intended trades (paper plan)

Agent daily log

How to go live

  1. Work through the steps in tools/ostium_agent/README.md locally: create a venv, install ostium-python-sdk, run setup_wallet.py, fund the printed address with Arbitrum USDC (+ a little ETH for gas) yourself.
  2. Review the dry-run plans in tools/ostium_agent/logs/ and on this tab first.
  3. Only then flip live_trading to true in tools/ostium_agent/config.json and run python3 tools/ostium_agent/agent.py --live — it asks for a typed confirmation before broadcasting anything.

Risk warning: Ostium suffered a $18–24M oracle exploit on 2026-07-15 (banner above). Perp trading with leverage can lose more than the collateral posted; rollover fees accrue per block. The private key never leaves your machine and is never seen by the AI assistant — but any funded wallet is fully at risk. Nothing on this tab is investment advice.

Sources

Growing-Region Weather

El Niño confirmation board

Precipitation anomaly by growing region

Ocean

Live physical-state imagery of the equatorial Pacific from NOAA CPC and NOAA PMEL/TAO. All maps, cross-sections and animations below are loaded directly from operational NOAA products — no simulated or placeholder data. If an image fails to load, the exact source URL is shown so you can inspect it at NOAA.

Sea surface temperature (SST)

Subsurface temperature — equatorial Pacific cross-section

Depth–longitude slices along the equator show the warm-water reservoir and thermocline displacement that drive El Niño. The animation cycles through the latest weekly analyses.

Atmosphere–ocean coupling

850 hPa zonal wind anomalies reveal weakening trade winds; OLR anomalies show the eastward shift of convection; PMEL TAO buoys give direct equatorial wind and SST observations.

Time-longitude evolution

Hovmöller-style summaries show how SST and upper-ocean heat anomalies have propagated eastward over the past year.

Data & Sources

Every dataset on this site is listed below with its exact source. The derived aggregates in site-data/ are computed by tools/build_site_data.py from the World Bank Commodity Price Data ("Pink Sheet") monthly file and the other raw series in data/; current prices are fetched by tools/fetch_current_prices.py. Full repository: github.com/operalag/enso.